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Webinar: Bitcoin Trading Strategy as Prices Continue to Soar

Date: 2017-11-01 12:56:57


Forex: Top FX Headlines: USD Uptrend Steady Before FOMC; GBP Risky Ahead of BOE: 11/1/17

Date: 2017-11-01 11:03:51

– Fed funds are pricing in a 0% chance of a rate move today, which isn’t a surprise considering policy officials have all but explicitly said that the next hike is coming in December.
– Asymmetric risk exists for the British Pound around the BOE rate decision tomorrow, given the high degree to which a rate hike has been priced-in (89% per overnight index swaps).


Trading Outlook: FOMC, US Dollar, EURUSD, Cross-rates & More

Date: 2017-11-01 10:34:47

Today, we briefly discussed today’s FOMC meeting, but focused primarily on the technical landscape of USD-pairs, cross-rates, and touched on commodities & equity indices.@PaulRobinsonFX

FX Closing Bell October 31: GBP Strength Pre-FOMC As Traders Question BoEs Long-Term Plan

Date: 2017-10-31 22:06:32


Will they or won’t they? That is, will the Bank of England on Thursday signal subsequent hikes? The market is pricing in an 88% probability of a rate hike on Thursday. However, the anticipated volatility surrounds whether or not the BoE’s Mark Carney will provide the scenario where GBP/USD moves toward 1.3350 on a hawkish take-away (more hikes to come) or toward 1.2900 if Carney sounds a dovish tone (one-and-done.)

While Wednesday’s top event will technically be the Federal Reserve rate announcement (markets pricing in less than 1% probability of a move), all eyes are one day forward where US President Donald Trump is expected to appoint the next Fed chair. Current front-runner Jerome Powell is seen as a complement to the Yellen viewpoint, and Powell would not be seen rocking the boat of monetary policy. The market is pricing in an 85% chance of a rate hike in December, and after the FOMC chair nomination is made known, traders will likely look for ways to continue playing the USD rebound from the 2017 trend.

As mentioned yesterday, traders should continue to keep an eye on commodity currencies that continue to sell-off. On Tuesday, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said foreign speculators would no longer be able to buy NZ houses for speculative purposes, which adds to the political risk premium that has taken NZD down by 3.5% over the last month. On Tuesday, the Canadian Dollar also weakened after GDP missed estimates.

Dollar’s Breakout Grows Precarious Ahead of Fed, Bitcoin Nears Legitimacy (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-31 20:57:13

Talking Points:

• Despite political instability headlines, risk has held steady and the SPX extended a 7-month advance – matching longest in 20 years
• Top event risk ahead is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, but its market-moving capacity may be curbed by Fed transparency
• Key technical developments like the Dollar’s reversal are losing steam, but Bitcoin’s charge found fresh support from the CME

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

Forex: Top FX Headlines: EUR/USD Head & Shoulders Still Valid; Asymmetric Risk for GBP/USD: 10/31/17

Date: 2017-10-31 11:23:35

– The DXY Index held the neckline retest of its inverse head & shoulders pattern at 94.29, while EUR/USD’s retest of its head & shoulders pattern of 1.1663 held up as well.
– With a BOE rate hike nearly 100% priced=in for Thursday, the event poses asymmetric risk to the British Pound.


Political Concerns Further Cools SPX Run, Fed Drumbeat Raises Dollar’s Profile (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-30 22:51:24

Talking Points:

• The lassitude of risk trends conviction these past weeks muted the Nasdaq’s surge last week on Amazon’s and others’ earnings beat
• Headlines touching on fresh US political risk and slowed tax reform drew attention to the Dollar and may have tripped up its break
• Top event risk going forward includes the BoJ rate decision, Eurozone 3Q GDP and then into FOMC Wednesday

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

FX Closing Bell October 30, Dollar Pulls Back Into Month End, Long-Term Gains Favored

Date: 2017-10-30 20:42:36


After a Cinderella week for US Dollar Index Bulls, profit takers emerged on Monday. Last week, the US Dollar Index recorded its best weekly return since the week the Federal Reserve raised rates in December 2016. The dollar effectively sold off consistently week after week with a few breaks until the opening week of September. Now, a massive unwind could develop in the USD short position that could lift US Dollar into the close of 2017.

Traders are looking to a slew of central banks this week kicked off by Bank of Japan who is exported to leave policy unchanged, but could provide a little excitement if they drop inflation expectations or explain new confidence in extended monetary policy off the back of Shinzo Abe’s victory from the snap election. Either way, the market looks set to extend short positions of the Japanese Yen as a bias is building to be long USD per the perspective of multiple derivative currencies markets like options and forwards.

Commodity currencies also look susceptible to further declines against the USD. The Australian Dollar is looking to lose its yield premium to the USD, and highly correlated Iron Ore is pushing closer to its 12-month low while the RBA continues to resist being confused as a hawkish central bank. Another aggressively sold currency is the New Zealand Dollar where the Finance Minister, Grant Robertson recently communicated a desire to adjust the mandate of the RBNZ to focus on employment growth. Given the export-dependent New Zealand economy, this is seen as a threat to NZD bulls.

Lastly, the Canadian Dollar could be in for a continued drop if the testimony of BoC governor Stephen Poloz further casts doubt on pending hawkishness by the Bank of Canada. Futures positioning shows Canadian Dollar long positions extended to the largest exposure since 2013 on the back of multiple BoC hikes before the Bank of Canada adjusted their rhetoric to being data-focused before discussing more hikes. Now, the options market is beginning to pay a premium for CAD-downside protection (USD/CAD upside) over the coming week and 3-month tenors.

Weekly Technical Outlook: Stormy Seas Heading into BoE, FOMC & NFPs

Date: 2017-10-30 15:57:49

Currency Strategist Michael Boutros highlights featured setups we’re tracking into the start of November trade. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Webinar: Market Sentiment Improves Towards Euro, European Stocks

Date: 2017-10-30 11:56:45

Talking Points:
– Confidence about the Euro and other European assets is returning.
– There are plenty of sentiment indicators on tap this week that could move the markets.
– In this webinar, DailyFX Analyst and Editor Martin Essex looks at market sentiment and the events coming up that are likely to influence it, and therefore have an impact on asset prices.

The Dollar’s Reversal Attempt Hinges on Fed Policy and Speculation Next Week (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-28 01:43:43

Talking Points:

• The Dollar secured a technical reversal of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern this past week but conviction is not explicit
• For EUR/USD and the Dollar in general to extend to the next stage of a true reversal, Fed policy will prove a critical milestone
• Top event risk this week includes NFPs; President Trump’s Fed Chair pick; the Federal Reserve’s, BoJ’s and BoE’s rate decision

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

FX Closing Bell October 27, ECB sets table for US Dollar Bulls for Q4, EURUSD Breaks Lower

Date: 2017-10-27 18:10:39


Talking Points:
• US Dollar Index Technical Strategy: Anticipating further upside above 92.55/82
• Market shift of ECB expectations opens road for further USD gains
• Sentiment Highlight: EUR/USD bearish bias from retail gives warning for further DXY weakness
The European Central Bank may have set the table for US Dollar Bulls to enjoy a fine fourth quarter.
On Thursday, President Mario Draghi caused a major shift in positioning as evidenced from multiple markets that were pricing in EUR strength over the coming quarters unwinding. The takeaways from Thursday was assurance from the ECB was that the market should not worry about ECB rate hikes, which was something the market was pricing in before the meeting. Draghi also discouraged the use of the word taper (the wind down of QE) as the ECB will be looking to provide substantial market support going forward, which caused the EUR to eventually fall below 1.16 and the DXY to break above 95.
This week, the US Dollar has traded to a three month high with sentiment rising and favoring further DXY strength going forward. On the charts, the significant development this week was the close above the confluence of resistance near 94.20. The zone around there combined three different technical focuses. First, the mid-August corrective/lower high was at 94.15 followed by a 161.8% extension at 94.20 of the initial move higher when the DXY was seen as too oversold in early September given possible rate hikes at 91.01 to the September 14 high of 92.65. Lastly, a price channel that has framed price action for most of 2017 also predicted price pressure developing above 94. The close this week that accounted for the highest weekly gain of 2017 likely indicates a shift in behavior toward the DXY?
From here, only a daily close below 92.66 would open the door for challenging the current Bullish reversal. The first key upside focus is 95.25 (61.8% retracement of the June-September range.) Alternatively, a reversal back below the 92.66 exposes a likely continuation of the downtrend that would first target 91.53 (Sept. 20 low, first corrective higher low.)