Category Archives: commission

Forex: Top FX Headlines: EUR/USD Head & Shoulders Still Valid; Asymmetric Risk for GBP/USD: 10/31/17

Date: 2017-10-31 11:23:35

– The DXY Index held the neckline retest of its inverse head & shoulders pattern at 94.29, while EUR/USD’s retest of its head & shoulders pattern of 1.1663 held up as well.
– With a BOE rate hike nearly 100% priced=in for Thursday, the event poses asymmetric risk to the British Pound.


Political Concerns Further Cools SPX Run, Fed Drumbeat Raises Dollar’s Profile (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-30 22:51:24

Talking Points:

• The lassitude of risk trends conviction these past weeks muted the Nasdaq’s surge last week on Amazon’s and others’ earnings beat
• Headlines touching on fresh US political risk and slowed tax reform drew attention to the Dollar and may have tripped up its break
• Top event risk going forward includes the BoJ rate decision, Eurozone 3Q GDP and then into FOMC Wednesday

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

FX Closing Bell October 30, Dollar Pulls Back Into Month End, Long-Term Gains Favored

Date: 2017-10-30 20:42:36


After a Cinderella week for US Dollar Index Bulls, profit takers emerged on Monday. Last week, the US Dollar Index recorded its best weekly return since the week the Federal Reserve raised rates in December 2016. The dollar effectively sold off consistently week after week with a few breaks until the opening week of September. Now, a massive unwind could develop in the USD short position that could lift US Dollar into the close of 2017.

Traders are looking to a slew of central banks this week kicked off by Bank of Japan who is exported to leave policy unchanged, but could provide a little excitement if they drop inflation expectations or explain new confidence in extended monetary policy off the back of Shinzo Abe’s victory from the snap election. Either way, the market looks set to extend short positions of the Japanese Yen as a bias is building to be long USD per the perspective of multiple derivative currencies markets like options and forwards.

Commodity currencies also look susceptible to further declines against the USD. The Australian Dollar is looking to lose its yield premium to the USD, and highly correlated Iron Ore is pushing closer to its 12-month low while the RBA continues to resist being confused as a hawkish central bank. Another aggressively sold currency is the New Zealand Dollar where the Finance Minister, Grant Robertson recently communicated a desire to adjust the mandate of the RBNZ to focus on employment growth. Given the export-dependent New Zealand economy, this is seen as a threat to NZD bulls.

Lastly, the Canadian Dollar could be in for a continued drop if the testimony of BoC governor Stephen Poloz further casts doubt on pending hawkishness by the Bank of Canada. Futures positioning shows Canadian Dollar long positions extended to the largest exposure since 2013 on the back of multiple BoC hikes before the Bank of Canada adjusted their rhetoric to being data-focused before discussing more hikes. Now, the options market is beginning to pay a premium for CAD-downside protection (USD/CAD upside) over the coming week and 3-month tenors.

Weekly Technical Outlook: Stormy Seas Heading into BoE, FOMC & NFPs

Date: 2017-10-30 15:57:49

Currency Strategist Michael Boutros highlights featured setups we’re tracking into the start of November trade. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Webinar: Market Sentiment Improves Towards Euro, European Stocks

Date: 2017-10-30 11:56:45

Talking Points:
– Confidence about the Euro and other European assets is returning.
– There are plenty of sentiment indicators on tap this week that could move the markets.
– In this webinar, DailyFX Analyst and Editor Martin Essex looks at market sentiment and the events coming up that are likely to influence it, and therefore have an impact on asset prices.

The Dollar’s Reversal Attempt Hinges on Fed Policy and Speculation Next Week (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-28 01:43:43

Talking Points:

• The Dollar secured a technical reversal of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern this past week but conviction is not explicit
• For EUR/USD and the Dollar in general to extend to the next stage of a true reversal, Fed policy will prove a critical milestone
• Top event risk this week includes NFPs; President Trump’s Fed Chair pick; the Federal Reserve’s, BoJ’s and BoE’s rate decision

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

FX Closing Bell October 27, ECB sets table for US Dollar Bulls for Q4, EURUSD Breaks Lower

Date: 2017-10-27 18:10:39


Talking Points:
• US Dollar Index Technical Strategy: Anticipating further upside above 92.55/82
• Market shift of ECB expectations opens road for further USD gains
• Sentiment Highlight: EUR/USD bearish bias from retail gives warning for further DXY weakness
The European Central Bank may have set the table for US Dollar Bulls to enjoy a fine fourth quarter.
On Thursday, President Mario Draghi caused a major shift in positioning as evidenced from multiple markets that were pricing in EUR strength over the coming quarters unwinding. The takeaways from Thursday was assurance from the ECB was that the market should not worry about ECB rate hikes, which was something the market was pricing in before the meeting. Draghi also discouraged the use of the word taper (the wind down of QE) as the ECB will be looking to provide substantial market support going forward, which caused the EUR to eventually fall below 1.16 and the DXY to break above 95.
This week, the US Dollar has traded to a three month high with sentiment rising and favoring further DXY strength going forward. On the charts, the significant development this week was the close above the confluence of resistance near 94.20. The zone around there combined three different technical focuses. First, the mid-August corrective/lower high was at 94.15 followed by a 161.8% extension at 94.20 of the initial move higher when the DXY was seen as too oversold in early September given possible rate hikes at 91.01 to the September 14 high of 92.65. Lastly, a price channel that has framed price action for most of 2017 also predicted price pressure developing above 94. The close this week that accounted for the highest weekly gain of 2017 likely indicates a shift in behavior toward the DXY?
From here, only a daily close below 92.66 would open the door for challenging the current Bullish reversal. The first key upside focus is 95.25 (61.8% retracement of the June-September range.) Alternatively, a reversal back below the 92.66 exposes a likely continuation of the downtrend that would first target 91.53 (Sept. 20 low, first corrective higher low.)

DailyFX Roundtable: U.S. 3Q GDP Implications for Fed & USD Outlook

Date: 2017-10-27 15:13:10

Join DailyFX Strategists Michael Boutros and David Song to cover the advance 3Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product report along with a preview for the FOMC meeting.


Webinar: A Packed Week including UK Super Thursday, FOMC and NFPs

Date: 2017-10-27 12:15:10


Forex: Top FX Headlines: DXY Bottoming, EUR/USD Topping Patterns Point to USD Strength: 10/27/17

Date: 2017-10-27 11:07:28

– US Treasury yields continue to push higher supporting more US Dollar strength, with the 2-year yield at its highest level since 2008 and the 10-year yield at its highest level since March.
– British Pound may be facing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event in the BOE rate decision next week.


The ECB’s Decision Helped the Dollar, Afterhours Earnings Give Stocks a Charge (Forex Trading Video)

Date: 2017-10-26 22:48:28

Talking Points:

• Speculative appetite has not gathered any deeper conviction since before I went on leave, but volatility is increasing
• Earnings haven’t given much drive to markets beyond a slow burn, but an afterhours mix including Amazon may lead to a gap
• The Dollar was one of the most productive major currencies this past session – with a key DXY break – but what drove it?

What are the DailyFX analysts’ fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX. (

Trading the U.S. Dollar Breakout – Price Action Setups (Oct. 26, 2017)

Date: 2017-10-26 18:53:34

– This is one of the many DailyFX webinars that we host each week, most of which are completely free to all traders. If you’d like to attend this event in the future, or if you’d like to find another of our webinars that may fit your trading style even better, please check out our DailyFX Webinar calendar to find the best session for you.

– The first market that we looked at was the U.S. Dollar as DXY was in the process of driving-up to fresh three-month highs. Tomorrow brings U.S. GDP, and next week brings a Fed meeting with few expectations for anything new. More interesting, however, is the Fed’s December meeting and the near-100% probability that’s currently showing for a move around that rate decision. This, combined with the Fed’s persistent hawkishness towards 2018, and now added in with a dovish European Central Bank – can allow for deeper movement of USD-strength. We looked at a couple of different ways of confirming this theme, using near-term price dynamics and their relation to the big zone of prior resistance that runs from 94.08-94.30.

– We then moved over to EUR/USD, which was in the process of breaching the bottom side of the support zone that we’ve been following. This is likely related to the fact that the driving factor behind the pair’s 2017 bullish trend, the prospect of stimulus exit from the ECB, has just gotten kicked out to some point in the future. This can provide a softened backdrop for the single currency, and this could lead to a deeper retracement in the pair. EUR/USD has Fibonacci retracements around 1.1425 and 1.1215 that are interesting for longer-term higher-lows.

– We then moved over to AUD/USD, which can remain as attractive for long-USD scenarios. We discussed this setup in an Analyst Pick earlier in the week, and in the webinar, we discussed how current price action can be used in a bearish approach on the pair.

– We then looked at NZD/USD, which has cratered in the wake of Jacinda Ardern. Ms. Ardern had the recent comment that ‘capitalism is a blatant failure’, and while the context is important, this is generally not the type of leadership that attracts capital flows into an economy. And this really echoes the NZD/USD spot rate that’s dropped like a rock through numerous levels and areas of support. We looked at a couple of mannerisms to investigate for the bearish continuation side of the pair.

– We then looked at USD/JPY, which is noticeably missing from this recent strong-Dollar party. USD/JPY continues to catch resistance at the 23.6% retracement of the 2016 low to the 2017 high; and this is an area that had twice helped to turn around bullish advances in USD/JPY. I need to see this zone of resistance broken before I can investigate bullish approaches on the pair; but if that happens, higher-low support around 114.03 can become an attractive prospect.

– USD/CHF is in the process of breaking out, and while EUR/USD gyrates below a big zone of resistance, Swissy has been flying-high for the better part of the past two weeks. A re-test of parity appears to be in the cards, and we looked at a couple of levels that can be used to look for ‘higher low’ support in the continued bullish move.

– We then looked at USD/CAD, which put in a significant topside rip after yesterday’s BoC rate decision. The pair feels very overbought at the moment, so those looking to chase should remain cautious. A test of prior resistance as fresh support opens the door for topside setups.

– EUR/JPY is getting crushed today. But this is one of the few Euro-reversals on my radar, as that Yen-weakness could potentially offset some of the selling pressure in the Euro, if not eclipse it altogether. But – we need some evidence of support first, as looking to buy right now could be tantamount to trying to catch a javelin. We looked at this scenario in yesterday’s technical article on the pair, and because no support showed at the first of the levels we looked at 133.50, the only area of support ahead of the confluent zone is around 132.50. But – if support shows, stops can be looked at below the big zone of support from 131.71-132.05 for bullish reversals of this near-term sell-off.

– We then looked at GBP/USD, which is still rather messy. I need a directional move before I can start to look at setups here. I’m looking for a topside break of 1.3350 for bullish setups and a bottom-side run below 1.3000 to open the door for shorts.
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