Category Archives: commission

Becoming a Better FX Trader: Q&A Session

Date: 2017-10-26 12:03:30

Today, we discussed a host of topics pertaining to trader performance; risk management, psychology, analysis techniques, and more. @PaulRobinsonFX

Top FX Headlines: Preview for October ECB Meeting and Outlook for EUR-crosses: 10/26/17

Date: 2017-10-26 10:44:06

– No change in rates expected today, but it is widely anticipated that the ECB will announce a taper to its QE program.
– ECB President Draghi’s press conference and the details he reveals with respect to the taper will fully determine which way the Euro trades.


Forex : ECB Preview: Euro Outlook Hinges on QE Exit

Date: 2017-10-25 18:05:22

Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for a preview of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.

#news #ECB #EUR #USD

Live Data Coverage: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Date: 2017-10-25 15:47:16

Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song to cover the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision.

#news #BoC #USDCAD

Webinar: Mid-Week Trading Q&A: GBP After UK GDP, EUR Ahead of ECB Tomorrow: 10/25/17

Date: 2017-10-25 14:25:30

DailyFX Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA reviews the performance of markets in the first half of the week, as well as the outlook for key FX pairs in the second half.

The first few days of the week have been rather quiet, again, but the rest of the week is saturated with significant event risk that will move FX markets. The Bank of Canada rate decision today will help clarify rate expectations for the rest of 2017, while the European Central Bank rate decision tomorrow will bring forth news on the pace of the QE stimulus program.

Other topics covered include:

– What has been the main driving factor behind the US Dollar rise in recent days?
– What should traders expect out of the ECB meeting on Thursday?
– How will the BOE’s rate hike next week impact recently bullish GBP-crosses?


Technical Outlook for US Dollar, EUR & GBP Crosses, Gold, and More

Date: 2017-10-25 10:37:17

We focused our attention on DXY, Euro heading into tomorrow’s ECB meeting, USD-pairs, EUR & GBP crosses; light coverage of gold/silver and indices. @PaulRobinsonFX

Webinar: UK GDP Data Increase Likelihood of UK Rate Rise

Date: 2017-10-25 09:12:42

Talking Points:
– UK GDP expanded by 0.4% in Q3, above the 0.3% predicted and above the previous 0.3%.
– That makes an interest rate increase by the Bank of England on November 2 even more likely and that strengthened the British Pound.
– In this webinar, DailyFX Analyst and Editor Martin Essex looked at the data before and after their release, plus their impact on interest rates and the currency.

USD Price Action Setups Ahead of BoC, ECB

Date: 2017-10-24 18:46:15

– The next two trading days bring two rate decisions out of major Central Banks, with the Bank of Canada on the docket for tomorrow while the European Central Bank is on the calendar for Thursday. While no moves are expected out of the BoC, the large expectation around the ECB is for the bank to furnish details around their plans with stimulus as the current bond buying program is set to expire in December.

– The first market we looked at was USD/CAD, which at the time of the webinar was catching resistance at an interesting level of 1.2672. This is the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2016 major move in USD/CAD, and this price had helped to set resistance in mid-August before the pair broke down to fresh multi-year lows. With the BoC unlikely to make any moves tomorrow, combined with the prospect of continued USD-strength, the top-side of USD/CAD can remain attractive.

– We then moved over to EUR/USD, which is still pinned-down near that long-term zone of support that we’ve been following. Thursday’s ECB announcement is expected to bring an extension of the program while the ECB cuts the amount of monthly bond purchases. The current expectation is for a cut to €30B, but as we shared, we might see the ECB go a bit deeper than what is expected or hoped for in the effort of keeping the Euro relatively weak.

– We then looked at the U.S. Dollar, which remains ‘constructively bullish’. There’s a huge zone of resistance ahead that runs from 94.08-94.30, and if we’re able to finally break above this zone, bullish continuation can be in order. Friday brings U.S. GDP, but we may not have to wait until then for that break, as DXY will likely remain on the move around Thursday’s ECB event.

– We then moved over to AUD/USD as one of the more interesting ways to look for a continuation of USD-strength. We had published an analyst pick on the pair just yesterday outlining the setup.

– We then looked at USD/JPY. This was previously one of our more attractive long-USD candidates, but with the pair currently catching resistance at the four-month highs of the recent range, I’d want to see some additional topside run before looking to trade it higher. A break of prior resistance around ¥114.50 opens the door for higher-lows in the zone from ¥113.75-114.05.

– We then moved over to NZD/USD, which is in the process of getting slammed. Bearish continuation can remain attractive here, but there is a hindrance, as we’re fast approaching a key Fibonacci level around .6870. This is the 50% retracement of the 2009-2011 major move, and this level can produce a pause in the down-trend. This opens the door for lower-high resistance around the .7000-figure or, for those looking at shorter-term approaches, around .6930.

– We then looked at USD/CHF, which continues the recent topside breakout after taking out the double top at .9838. We looked at a series of top-side levels to use as resistance targets in order to look for a higher-low.

– We then looked at Gold prices, which have seen a hit of recent as USD-strength has shown with a bit more prominence.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

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#trading #forex #fx #markets #eurusd #usdcad #usd #audusd #nzdusd #usdcad #usdjpy #gold #priceaction #technicalanalysis

Webinar: European Desk Round Table: UK’s Brexit “May-hem” and ECB’s QE Taper: 10/24/17

Date: 2017-10-24 15:32:38

DailyFX strategists Nick Cawley, Martin Essex, and Christopher Vecchio discuss the major data due in the second half of the week, why the British Pound has been falling despite rising BOE rate hike expectations, and what traders should expect from the ECB rate decision this Thursday.

Other topics covered include:

– What developments in the Brexit negotiations have undercut the British Pound in recent weeks?
– How can the ECB announce a taper to its QE program without sending yields and the Euro sharply higher?
– How has the US Dollar contributed to recent moves lower in EUR/USD and GBP/USD?


Technical Outlook for Gold, Oil, DAX & More

Date: 2017-10-24 10:10:38

In this webinar, we looked at the near-term outlook for several commodities and equity indices. @PaulRobinsonFX

FX Closing Bell, October 23: The Land of the Falling JPY Aligns With Big Test for US Economy

Date: 2017-10-23 20:44:45


JPY drops past 114 per USD after victory helps validate view of gov’t supported JPY weakness
NZD remains weak on new government formation that has similar ideology of Japan
IGCS favors keeping an eye on further EUR strength against weaker FX (e.g., JPY, NZD, CAD)

A stubborn block of JPY strength was removed from the market on Sunday.

The broadly expected victory by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the snap election he called to extend the Liberal Democratic Parties control will ensure a same line of thinking in Japan that has helped the JPY find persistent selling after fears subside.

Over recent weeks, I have written pointedly about the concentration of time-specific options for JPY Calls (right, but not the obligation) to buy JPY (USD/JPY lower) if an unthinkable election outcome would result. A defeat for Japan over the weekend would have been similar to the immediate Brexit aftermath as a new government would have needed to have been put together and the work done by the BoJ to have a balance sheet of purchased assets more extensive than the US Federal Reserves would need to be addressed about unwinding as well. However, the election outcome favored the incumbents, and in so doing, the options to buy JPY and push USD/JPY lower were unwound while other themes like higher equity markets like the Japanese Nikkei and SPX500 alongside higher US Yields favor a rising USD/JPY.

The offers to sell NZD keep coming and on Monday the price of NZD weakening remained a dominant theme. The formation of the new government that has made statements on how the NZ economy ‘lives or dies by exports’ and that sees the RBNZ’s mandate as maybe needing to be changed favor full employment favor a weakening NZD to help boost exports and thereby employment in an export-dependent economy.

As the market learns more about this new Labour-NZF-Greens coalition government and PM Prime Minister-elect Jacinda Ardern, the bias will likely be to sell strength in NZD. The fear may be overdone, but it appears too early to tell, and the SW index is showing that momentum favors not standing in the way of NZD weakness

Lastly, keep an eye on the US 10-Year Treasury yield that is sitting at a level it has not been above since May, 2.40%. A move in the 10Y yield above 2.40% would indicate a selling of Treasuries in the middle of the curve that tends to be indicative of stronger US growth or inflation that could lead to a tightening Federal Reserve. A break higher in the yield would argue for further USD strength, which aligns with the current SW ranking.

Weekly Technical Outlook: USD Turn or Burn at Key Resistance

Date: 2017-10-23 16:00:03
Currency Strategist Michael Boutros highlights featured setups we’re tracking into the start of the week. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter