Category Archives: commission

Webinar: FX Week Ahead: UK & US GDP, BOC & ECB Meetings Ahead: 10/23/17

Date: 2017-10-23 14:18:46

DailyFX Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA discusses the major data due over the coming week and how they will impact FX markets.

Volatility should pick up in the coming days as several key themes, events, and data releases are converging all at once. Q3’17 GDP readings from the UK and the US will help shape policy expectations for the BOE and the Fed in different ways at the central banks’ respective upcoming policy meetings.

Elsewhere, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will be in focus as rate hike odds for 2017 have evaporated in recent weeks. The most important event of the week comes on Thursday when the European Central Bank will meet and likely announce a taper to their QE program.

Other topics covered include:

– Why has the US Dollar momentum suddenly shifted back to the topside?
– What does the rising yield environment mean for the low yielding, safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc?
– How have politics suddenly reemerged as one of the more significant driving forces in FX markets?


Webinar: UK Asset Markets Have a Number of Important Drivers Next Week

Date: 2017-10-20 12:34:41


USD Price Action Setups Ahead of ECB (EUR/USD)

Date: 2017-10-19 18:41:03

– The first market that we looked at was the U.S. Dollar. The Greenback put in a steady stream of strength after last week’s CPI report, but has since seen sellers come-in ahead of a key zone of resistance that runs from 94.08-94.30. While this could be attractive for bearish continuation, the messy nature of near-term price action makes an immediate setup unclear. We looked at two different areas to watch in order to implement a directional approach on the U.S. Dollar.

– We then moved over to EUR/USD as one of the more attractive short-side USD plays. The pair put in a bounce off the top of a key zone of support, producing a higher-low from the swing set earlier in October. Given that we’re coming off of a recent higher-high, this opens the door for top-side continuation setups. A bullish breech of 1.1880 opens the door for a re-test of 1.2000 and then 1.2050. If new highs come-in potential resistance around 1.2134 can be utilized as an additional target.

– We then looked at the British Pound, which is rather messy at the moment. While there’s a heavy intrigue of political risk in the pair, there are also economic consequences to contend with. November 2nd brings a highly important BoE rate decision in which there is a realistic chance of a rate hike from the Bank of England; and Tuesday inflation of 2.9% made that rate hike look even more likely. But even with all of that bullish build, GBP/USD remains rather weak while dwindling around in a longer-term support zone. We looked at levels above and below current price action that can open the door to directional approaches but, until then, remain cautious.

– We then moved over to USD/CAD, which is beginning to look interesting on the short-side. We specifically focused-in on the recent bear flag formation and the fact that prices appear to be scaling-down that channel. Continued resistance around the 1.2500 handle opens the door for short-side setups, with eyes on stops above prior swing-highs.

– We then looked at USD/JPY, which is still working with the big zone of support that runs from 111.61-112.43. Given the fact that prices haven’t been able to show much to the effect of bullish continuation, a bit more information could make the topside theme considerably more attractive. Alternatively, a re-test of support around 111.61 could open the door to bullish plays, particularly if the previous structure of higher-lows around support remain respected.

– We then looked at Swissy, which just put in a double top formation when resistance showed around .9838. This opens the possibility of a double-top breakout should another test of that resistance come in. Alternatively, the short side can remain workable, but traders would likely want to let some additional weakness show before looking to trade the bigger picture bearish reversal.

– We then moved over to AUD/USD, which could be an attractive setup for bullish-USD continuation. The pair put in a recent break of support and this, combined with the near-term lower lows and lower-highs, can be a denotation that the short-side of the pair is continuing to build interest for a deeper run. We had discussed this setup in yesterday’s Market Talk article entitled, USD Stretches Towards Resistance: Yen, Aussie to Offer Opportunity.

– We then looked at NZD/USD, which appears to be incorporating some newfound political risk into price. A downside breech of prior support at .7054 opens the possibility of bearish continuation. Traders will likely want to avoid chasing, as the psychological level just below current prices could bring pause to that short-side run. We looked at using potential resistance of .7100, .7150 or .7200 for short-side approaches in NZD/USD.

– We then looked at EUR/JPY, which remains bullish. The fundamental backdrop here is bullish, as well, and prices remain supported at a key level around 131.70-132.05. So, what’s wrong with the setup? What’s wrong is that it’s been in this spot for almost a full month and buyers haven’t yet been able to break prices up to a fresh high. So, while this remains bullish, it hasn’t been bullish enough to yet justify trend-continuation strategies. Traders can, however, look to trade the near-term range, and this can be done with a prior trend-side bias in the effort of having ones cake and eating it too. This can be done by looking to buy range support, while scaling out of the position at resistance. But rather that completely closing and then reversing, traders would keep a remainder of the position on while at resistance in the hope of a continued breakout.

– We also looked at GBP/JPY, which isn’t yet in a workable spot for me. I showed a couple of different elements of what I’m looking for before I can look to assign a trend-bias into the pair’s near-term price action.

#trading #forex #fx #usd #usdollar #dollar #eurusd #euro #ecb #draghi #gbpusd #usdjpy #audusd #nzdusd #usdcad #eurjpy #gbpjpy #yen #fomc

Forex: Top FX Headlines: US Dollar Taking Cues from Other Major Currencies: 10/19/17

Date: 2017-10-19 11:05:55

– The Euro continues to trade largely sideways – now higher after trading lower earlier in the week – as investor seem happy to overlook the Catalan crisis in favor of staying long in front of the ECB meeting next Thursday.
– The British Pound slipped again after retail sales data for September illustrated how high inflation and low wage growth are crimping consumers’ spending habits.


FX Closing Bell, October 18 Signs of a Dollar “Shortage” Emerge

Date: 2017-10-18 20:27:51


Forex : Tracking Key FX Market Themes & Trade Setups

Date: 2017-10-18 18:38:39

Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song to cover key FX market themes along with a few trade setups.


Webinar: Is Bitcoin in a Bubble?: A Short- and Long-Term View

Date: 2017-10-18 11:59:53


Technical Outlook for US Dollar, Cross-rates, Gold & More

Date: 2017-10-18 10:54:19

In this webinar, we discussed what looks to be a bottom forming in the US dollar, posturing of various cross-rates; a peek at commodities & indices. @PaulRobinsonFX

FX Closing Bell October 17, USD Finds Further Bids As GBP Drops and CAD Remains Weak

Date: 2017-10-17 20:20:40


-The Canadian Dollar remains the weakest currency and headlines on Tuesday morning added to the pain. CNBC reported that Canada and Mexico are expected to reject U.S. NAFTA proposals though they will offer to keep negotiations ongoing. Before the CNBC report, the spread between the 2-year sovereign yield of US and CA bonds flipped from being in favor of Canada to the US for the first time since early September. The relationship of the yield spread held a near perfect positive correlation to the USD/CAD spot rate in the previous month. Canada’s short-term yield premium to the US 2-year yield peaked on September 8 at ~26bps and now is in the US’ favor by 3bps. The Canadian Dollar has weakened by 2

-The US Dollar continues to broaden its strength on news that Stanford Professor of Economics, John Taylor has a higher likelihood of becoming the next Fed chairperson than previously thought. The often-praised Taylor economic model, which is lore among macroeconomists says the Fed should be much tighter than they currently are with rates at 1.25%. The view that Taylor could take the helm at the Fed has sent front-end yields higher flattening the curve while the USD surged. Since news of Taylor impressing US President Donald J Trump, the price of USD/JPY has shown quick reaction higher by ~0.5%.

-The British Pound failed to hold gains despite UK inflation hitting 3% y/y, the highest levels since 2012. The odds for a Bank of England rate hike remain near 80%, but GBP failed to hold the gains as high-strike GBP premiums are fading, which would argue that GBP gains and BoE pressure is likely a shorter-term phenomenon. Currently, the view in derivatives markets is that the next hike from the BoE will likely not be followed up by another hike anytime soon as consumer spending has been struggling as the economy slowed making it difficult to hold a long-term Bullish GBP view.

-The price of USD/JPY looks to finally be reflecting the broader risk-on sentiment as seen with the Nikkei trading at the highest levels since 1996. A key reason for this can be seen in the premium for JPY calls receding ahead of the October 22 election. When PM Shinzo Abe called for a snap election to increase the LDP ruling coalition, JPY began to strengthen (JPY-crosses lower) as puts on JPY crosses and JPY calls became bid with an expiry around October 22. Such a development was key in seeing a cap on USD/JPY rising despite broader risk sentiment. Recently, reports from Japan’s media are showing an increased likelihood that the Abe administration will strengthen its grip on power the options premium for JPY strength has come off, and a continuation of this trend could lead to further increases in JPY-crosses.

Trading the Majors – Price Action Setups (Oct. 17, 2017)

Date: 2017-10-17 18:45:18

– We started off by looking at the British Pound, which is in an interesting spot as short-term price action is bearish; but long-term price action may have bullish connotations given that we’re currently trading within a large zone of bigger-picture support. At the time of the webinar, we were seeing short-term resistance at the top-side of the zone around 1.3187. If support does show before the bottom of the zone is reached, the longer-term bullish stance will look considerably more attractive as we approach a rate decision in which the BoE may actually hike rates (on November 2nd).

– We then looked at the U.S. Dollar, which has been fairly bullish since the aftermath of last Friday’s CPI report. Inflation came-in above the Fed’s 2% target, and this has firmed rate hike bets with eyes towards the FOMC rate decision scheduled for December. The big question here is what happens at resistance of 94.08-94.30 in DXY? Is this recent driver of strength enough to take out that resistance, thereby leading to fresh three month highs? If not, short-side continuation remains in order.

– We then looked at EUR/USD, which has started to test the long-term zone of confluent support that we’ve been following. Near-term price action is bearish, and traders looking to impose a bullish stance will likely want to wait for some element of confirmation. This can be seen with higher-highs and lows on the hourly chart. If we don’t see that, then short-side continuation appears to be in order for shorter-term perspectives, with eyes on the bottom side of the zone at 1.1685. The big question is whether sellers can take out the higher-low that printed as the September swing-low.

– We then looked at Aussie. AUD/USD continues to hold some bearish qualities, particularly for those looking at long-USD continuation strategies. The zone that runs from .7929-.7950 could be accommodative for stops on short-side positions, with eyes on .7750 for an initial target/break-even stop move.

– We also looked at the short-side of USD/CHF. Swissy is currently testing multi-month highs after budging above an area of prior resistance at .9770. If sellers respond ahead of the multi-month high at .9738, the door is opened for short-side exposure under the expectation that the Swissy range will continue.

– USD/CAD continues to trade within a bullish channel, albeit a bit less enthusiastically from what we saw last week. The big level here appears to be at 1.2660, which was the September swing-high that was set just before the swoon seen in USD/CAD as the BoC hiked rates. A break above this level opens the door for bullish continuation in the pair, while prices breaking back-below 1.2500 opens the door for the short-side of the pair.

#news #trading #fx #forex #priceaction #eurusd #usdjpy #usd #gbpusd #usdcad #usdjpy #usdchf

Webinar: FX Week Ahead: Global Inflation Data, Central Bank Policy in Focus: 10/16/17

Date: 2017-10-17 16:12:14

DailyFX Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA discusses the major data due over the coming week and how they will impact FX markets.

The turn through the middle of October should bring more volatility than what was experienced over the first two weeks of the month. The economic calendar in Asia and Europe is finally bringing forth meaningful information and events, meaning the spotlight should shift away from the US Dollar as the focal point for FX market activity.

Other topics covered include:

– Why has the US Dollar struggled since the release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report?
– What are the obstacles in the path to the ECB tapering its QE program at its meeting on October 26?
– Why has the British Pound depreciated in October despite BOE rate hike odds continuing to creep higher?


Technical Analysis for Gold, US & UK Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More

Date: 2017-10-17 10:02:31

In this webinar, we discussed the technical outlook for several major commodities and equity indices. @PaulRobinsonFX